TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13109839
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411711––––
Radovan Polasek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 45–38 Radovan Polasek Radovan Polasek has won 38 of their 83 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Polasek beat Paril 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Paril
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-38 in 83
Paril
Wrong
gap of 7 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1895 vs Polasek 1853
Paril
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 80% vs Polasek 60%
Paril
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 70% vs Polasek 50%
Paril
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +2 · Polasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Paril)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.73 / Polasek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Paril)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13109839
Paril1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 185 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it91% 84 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it76% 140 of 185
Polasek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 173 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back30% 50 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil6wins
AwayPolasek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil75%3 of 4
AwayPolasek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril4Polasek6n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S2Paril6Polasek4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S3Paril5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Paril4Polasek5n = 9Polasek took 5 of 9
S5Paril3Polasek1n = 4Paril took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilPolasekParil − PolasekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.0−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 970 vs 448 / 87952.1%51%505 / 970 vs 448 / 879Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.73/Polasek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 10:00O. Paril—981191R. Polasek—11118113
WSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril—111110113R. Polasek—891281
WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril—711112113R. Polasek—11781192
WSep 4 · 10:30O. Paril—1111118113R. Polasek—13991172
LSep 4 · 09:30O. Paril—7560R. Polasek—1111113
WSep 4 · 07:30O. Paril—11911113R. Polasek—411861
LAug 30 · 09:30O. Paril—111111362R. Polasek—591311113
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Paril—1011711113R. Polasek—12711982
WAug 28 · 10:00O. Paril—12511113R. Polasek—1011971
LAug 26 · 06:30O. Paril—411391R. Polasek—11911113
O. Paril10
WSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261WSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102LSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191WSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:30O. Paril1.73116128123R. Revay2.007111011102WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192WSep 9 · 06:00M. Vavrecka2.20731491O. Paril1.61111112113WSep 7 · 21:00T. Dousek1.7310990O. Paril2.001211113LSep 7 · 20:00O. Paril2.75761171D. Opanasiuk1.4011118113LSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162
R. Polasek10
LSep 10 · 12:00R. Polasek1.61101340M. Navedla2.201215113WSep 10 · 11:30J. Pilch2.251151381R. Polasek1.5741115113WSep 10 · 10:00R. Polasek1.8311118113O. Paril1.83981191LSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0391350R. Polasek1.621115113LSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril1.80111110113R. Polasek1.90891281WSep 9 · 08:00M. Vavrecka2.0011812101R. Polasek1.73131110123LSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril1.80711112113R. Polasek1.9111781192
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