TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104955
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukas Velebil
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111151210117––
Daniel Tomica
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tomica to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Velebil above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Daniel Tomica at 58.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velebil 3–5 Daniel Tomica Lukas Velebil has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tomica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Tomica
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velebil 1748 vs Tomica 1736
Velebil
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velebil 40% vs Tomica 60%
Tomica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velebil 60% vs Tomica 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velebil +2 · Tomica +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velebil) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelebil 1.83 / Tomica 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Velebil)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104955
Velebil1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Tomica1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVelebil3wins
AwayTomica5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderTomica leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelebil20%1 of 5
AwayTomica33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velebil5Tomica3n = 8Velebil took 5 of 8
S2Velebil2Tomica6n = 8Tomica took 6 of 8
S3Velebil3Tomica5n = 8Tomica took 5 of 8
S4Velebil3Tomica4n = 7Tomica took 4 of 7
S5Velebil2Tomica2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricVelebilTomicaV − TBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match37.841.5−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelebilTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 88 vs 89 / 18554.6%48.1%48 / 88 vs 89 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilVelebil 1.83/Tomica 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil—111131132D. Tomica—671113113
LAug 27 · 16:30L. Velebil—115931D. Tomica—61111113
LMay 21 · 17:30L. Velebil—5870D. Tomica—1111113
LMay 21 · 14:00L. Velebil—1110091D. Tomica—31211113
WMar 21 · 18:31L. Velebil—11911123D. Tomica—5119101
LMar 21 · 15:30L. Velebil—11118872D. Tomica—671111113
WFeb 12 · 18:26L. Velebil—1261111113D. Tomica—14118592
WFeb 12 · 16:00L. Velebil—571211113D. Tomica—111110962
L. Velebil10
WSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113
D. Tomica10
WSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191
Upcoming Matches
L. Velebil
D. Tomica
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