TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104619
Played Sep 10Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114911911311––
Lukas Velebil
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Matej Grundel at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 3–3 Lukas Velebil Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Grundel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1863 vs Velebil 1733
Grundel
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 60% vs Velebil 40%
Grundel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 60% vs Velebil 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +3 · Velebil +1
Grundel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Grundel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 1.67 / Velebil 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Grundel)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104619
Grundel1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 68 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 49 of 65
Velebil2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 7 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back13% 1 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGrundel3wins
AwayVelebil3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel60%3 of 5
AwayVelebiln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel5Velebil1n = 6Grundel took 5 of 6
S2Grundel3Velebil3n = 6split evenly
S3Grundel4Velebil2n = 6Grundel took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGrundelVelebilG − VBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.033.0+5.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 312 vs 47 / 8752.9%54%165 / 312 vs 47 / 87Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelGrundel 1.67/Velebil 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel—1113113L. Velebil—71160
WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel—1111113L. Velebil—7750
WAug 18 · 17:30M. Grundel—1115113L. Velebil—61390
LAug 18 · 16:00M. Grundel—118811102L. Velebil—511116123
LMar 21 · 17:00M. Grundel—12911982L. Velebil—1011411113
LFeb 4 · 16:30M. Grundel—69110L. Velebil—1111133
M. Grundel10
WSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113LSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931
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