TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114292
Played Sep 12Finished
Pavel Wawrosz
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118911811––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 4–6 Jakub Pilch Pavel Wawrosz has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Pilch
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1797 vs Pilch 1783
Wawrosz
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 60% vs Pilch 20%
Wawrosz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 60% vs Pilch 40%
Wawrosz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz -2 · Pilch -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wawrosz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 1.91 / Pilch 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wawrosz)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114292
Wawrosz1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 59 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back35% 19 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back19% 5 of 27
Pilch1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 55 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it71% 36 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz4wins
AwayPilch6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawrosz40%2 of 5
AwayPilch60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S2Wawrosz5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S3Wawrosz5Pilch5n = 10split evenly
S4Wawrosz3Pilch5n = 8Pilch took 5 of 8
S5Wawrosz1Pilch2n = 3Pilch took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszPilchW − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.037.2+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 415 vs 222 / 43850.8%50.7%211 / 415 vs 222 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszWawrosz 1.91/Pilch 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:00P. Wawrosz—11116113J. Pilch—551171
WSep 7 · 13:07P. Wawrosz—41111113J. Pilch—117271
LSep 7 · 11:00P. Wawrosz—1171161J. Pilch—71113113
LJul 24 · 06:30P. Wawrosz—139981J. Pilch—111111113
WJul 21 · 13:00P. Wawrosz—1111113J. Pilch—9640
LJul 21 · 11:30P. Wawrosz—9980J. Pilch—1111113
LJul 15 · 12:30P. Wawrosz—6101431J. Pilch—111212113
LJun 17 · 07:30P. Wawrosz—11116662J. Pilch—961111113
WJun 15 · 10:00P. Wawrosz—781111113J. Pilch—11114932
LJun 15 · 06:30P. Wawrosz—101111992J. Pilch—129411113
P. Wawrosz10
LSep 12 · 07:30L. Velebil2.1011117113P. Wawrosz1.67881141LSep 12 · 06:00P. Wawrosz1.809111191L. Prikasky1.9111136113WSep 11 · 13:30O. Paril1.85881151P. Wawrosz1.8511119113WSep 11 · 12:30P. Wawrosz1.8361211113R. Revay1.831110681WSep 11 · 11:00P. Wawrosz2.0011127113R. Polasek1.739101191LSep 11 · 10:00O. Paril1.804101111113P. Wawrosz1.9111128572LSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113WSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113WSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481
J. Pilch10
LSep 12 · 07:00L. Prikasky1.9181112113J. Pilch1.801191061LSep 12 · 06:30J. Pilch1.67116112132L. Velebil2.10711711153WSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla2.25111514862J. Pilch1.579171211113LSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261LSep 10 · 11:30J. Pilch2.251151381R. Polasek1.5741115113WSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113LSep 10 · 09:30J. Pilch2.384860R. Revay1.531111113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:30J. Pilch2.001361111113M. Vavrecka1.73111181342LSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113
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