TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110711
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukas Velebil
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119911119511
Daniel Tomica
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Velebil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Velebil above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 94 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Velebil at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velebil 4–5 Daniel Tomica Lukas Velebil has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Velebil beat Tomica 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Velebil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velebil 1771 vs Tomica 1744
Velebil
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velebil 80% vs Tomica 60%
Velebil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velebil 70% vs Tomica 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velebil +4 · Tomica +1
Velebil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velebil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelebil 1.80 / Tomica 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Velebil)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110711
Velebil1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 27 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Tomica1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 25 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVelebil4wins
AwayTomica5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderTomica leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelebil20%1 of 5
AwayTomica25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velebil5Tomica4n = 9Velebil took 5 of 9
S2Velebil3Tomica6n = 9Tomica took 6 of 9
S3Velebil4Tomica5n = 9Tomica took 5 of 9
S4Velebil4Tomica4n = 8split evenly
S5Velebil2Tomica2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricVelebilTomicaV − TBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.140.6−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelebilTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 90 vs 90 / 18755.6%48.1%50 / 90 vs 90 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilVelebil 1.80/Tomica 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil—71112113D. Tomica—1151071
LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil—111131132D. Tomica—671113113
LAug 27 · 16:30L. Velebil—115931D. Tomica—61111113
LMay 21 · 17:30L. Velebil—5870D. Tomica—1111113
LMay 21 · 14:00L. Velebil—1110091D. Tomica—31211113
WMar 21 · 18:31L. Velebil—11911123D. Tomica—5119101
LMar 21 · 15:30L. Velebil—11118872D. Tomica—671111113
WFeb 12 · 18:26L. Velebil—1261111113D. Tomica—14118592
WFeb 12 · 16:00L. Velebil—571211113D. Tomica—111110962
L. Velebil10
WSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751WSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113
D. Tomica10
WSep 10 · 16:00M. Grundel1.5010880D. Tomica2.501211113LSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.