TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104620
Played Sep 10Finished
Matej Grundel
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811811––––
Daniel Tomica
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Grundel above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Matej Grundel at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Matej Grundel 12–9 Daniel Tomica Daniel Tomica has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Grundel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Grundel
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grundel 1855 vs Tomica 1725
Grundel
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grundel 80% vs Tomica 60%
Grundel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grundel 60% vs Tomica 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grundel +1 · Tomica -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Grundel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrundel 1.50 / Tomica 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Grundel)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104620
Grundel1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 68 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 49 of 65
Tomica2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 25 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrundel7wins
AwayTomica3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGrundel leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrundel83.3%5 of 6
AwayTomica50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grundel6Tomica4n = 10Grundel took 6 of 10
S2Grundel9Tomica1n = 10Grundel took 9 of 10
S3Grundel7Tomica3n = 10Grundel took 7 of 10
S4Grundel3Tomica2n = 5Grundel took 3 of 5
S5Grundel1Tomica2n = 3Tomica took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrundelTomicaG − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.230.8+6.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrundelTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 314 vs 89 / 18652.9%47.9%166 / 314 vs 89 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelGrundel 1.50/Tomica 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 15:00M. Grundel—1111113D. Tomica—7450
WAug 13 · 15:00M. Grundel—61111113D. Tomica—118661
LAug 8 · 10:30M. Grundel—911961D. Tomica—11511113
WAug 7 · 16:30M. Grundel—1311113D. Tomica—11550
WJul 17 · 17:30M. Grundel—1111113D. Tomica—5870
LJul 17 · 15:30M. Grundel—61111642D. Tomica—116611113
WJul 11 · 10:00M. Grundel—1211113D. Tomica—10640
WJul 2 · 14:00M. Grundel—811813113D. Tomica—117111152
WJun 1 · 17:00M. Grundel—1111113D. Tomica—6930
LJun 1 · 15:00M. Grundel—13681222D. Tomica—11111110113
M. Grundel10
WSep 10 · 16:59M. Grundel1.61101111113F. Nadymacek2.20126991WSep 10 · 15:30F. Nadymacek2.1011135782M. Grundel1.679111111113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 9 · 17:30M. Grundel2.10117115113R. Polasek1.6571151162WSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.83541381M. Grundel1.83111111113LSep 9 · 14:30M. Grundel2.0854111122R. Polasek1.59111173113LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113
D. Tomica10
WSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113LSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:30D. Tomica1.671111113F. Nadymacek2.109740WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113
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