TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110644
Played Sep 10Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181412117––––
Michal Cabis
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Michal Cabis below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 63 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 11–12 Michal Cabis Tomas Dousek has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dousek beat Cabis 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Cabis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1821 vs Cabis 1872
Cabis
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 60% vs Cabis 40%
Dousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 50% vs Cabis 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +3 · Cabis +1
Dousek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cabis) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabis form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.85 / Cabis 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cabis)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110644
Dousek1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Cabis1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek5wins
AwayCabis5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek75%3 of 4
AwayCabis66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek4Cabis6n = 10Cabis took 6 of 10
S2Dousek4Cabis6n = 10Cabis took 6 of 10
S3Dousek7Cabis3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S4Dousek5Cabis4n = 9Dousek took 5 of 9
S5Dousek2Cabis3n = 5Cabis took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekCabisD − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.741.9+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekCabisBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 454 vs 367 / 69952.9%52.5%240 / 454 vs 367 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabisDousek 1.85/Cabis 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cabis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek—5121112143M. Cabis—1110614122
LAug 31 · 08:00T. Dousek—101180M. Cabis—1213113
LAug 24 · 11:30T. Dousek—118111192M. Cabis—311913113
WAug 19 · 13:00T. Dousek—11911113M. Cabis—911371
LAug 19 · 11:00T. Dousek—106111192M. Cabis—121198113
LAug 13 · 12:00T. Dousek—7111041M. Cabis—11612113
LAug 12 · 11:00T. Dousek—66111182M. Cabis—111198113
WAug 9 · 13:29T. Dousek—11119113M. Cabis—881181
WAug 9 · 11:30T. Dousek—613116113M. Cabis—111191172
WJul 8 · 10:00T. Dousek—11911113M. Cabis—611381
T. Dousek10
WSep 10 · 16:30T. Dousek1.83711911113R. Polasek1.8311411642WSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek1.835121112143M. Cabis1.831110614122WSep 10 · 14:00M. Biolek1.50691361T. Dousek2.50111111113LSep 7 · 21:00T. Dousek1.7310990O. Paril2.001211113LSep 7 · 20:30M. Vavrecka2.00101111113T. Dousek1.73129491WSep 7 · 19:30T. Dousek1.80111179113O. Paril1.9159111162LSep 7 · 18:30D. Opanasiuk1.8010111011113T. Dousek1.9112612892LSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841WSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100
M. Cabis10
WSep 10 · 16:00M. Biolek1.61951181M. Cabis2.2011116113LSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek1.835121112143M. Cabis1.831110614122LSep 10 · 14:30M. Cabis1.831111106102R. Polasek1.83561211123WSep 5 · 13:03M. Cabis1.5571211113T. Zika2.301110831LSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cabis1.6111811113T. Zika2.20611931LSep 5 · 10:00M. Biolek1.61116119113M. Cabis2.2081161162WAug 31 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.73101040M. Cabis2.001212113LAug 31 · 16:30T. Zika2.2011411113M. Cabis1.61711491LAug 31 · 15:30M. Cabis1.837570R. Revay1.831111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.