TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117025
Played Sep 12Finished
Jan Mares
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111214511––––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 78.2% is still 78.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
78.2%
78.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mares above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 78.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mares 5–8 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jan Mares has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Jnr
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1192 vs Jnr 1317
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 20% vs Jnr 50%
Jnr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -3 · Jnr -2
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 3.75 / Jnr 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Jnr)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13117025
Mares3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Jnr1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 95 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares3wins
AwayJnr7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaresn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJnr75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares2Jnr8n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S2Mares4Jnr6n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S3Mares3Jnr7n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S4Mares1Jnr5n = 6Jnr took 5 of 6
S5Mares3Jnr1n = 4Mares took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresJnrM − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.138.9−6.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 123 vs 243 / 46939.8%51.8%49 / 123 vs 243 / 469Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrMares 3.75/Jnr 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.2%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 10 · 14:30J. Mares229580J. Jnr331111113
WJul 4 · 17:15J. Mares45411118113J. Jnr4511771192
LJun 20 · 18:45J. Mares186570J. Jnr331111113
LMay 30 · 20:38J. Mares132380J. Jnr331111113
LMay 30 · 19:30J. Mares203980J. Jnr331111113
WMar 8 · 14:30J. Mares43311711113J. Jnr4011911362
LAug 24 · 15:45J. Mares28581141J. Jnr4211119113
LAug 22 · 16:33J. Mares4911119992J. Jnr46671111113
WAug 22 · 13:30J. Mares44111148103J. Jnr4187111142
LJul 20 · 18:00J. Mares399911101J. Jnr4311119123
J. Mares10
LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113LJul 28 · 18:00J. Mares3.4051111242J. Mejzlik1.30115711113LJul 25 · 16:28J. Mares3.5071080M. Cmil1.281112103WJul 25 · 15:30M. Cmil1.33126111182J. Mares3.25141126113
J. Jnr10
LSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480LSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113WSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113WSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113
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