TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095131
Played Sep 8Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81131114121214––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 85 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 67.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 11–20 Jakub Dufek Jnr Vaclav Coubal has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:51What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-20 in 31
Jnr
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1286 vs Jnr 1288
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 60% vs Jnr 0%
Coubal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 50% vs Jnr 30%
Coubal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +1 · Jnr -5
Jnr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (0%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 2.75 / Jnr 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Jnr)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095131
Coubal2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 39 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Jnr1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 92 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it74% 65 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal3wins
AwayJnr7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal25%1 of 4
AwayJnr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal4Jnr6n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S2Coubal5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Coubal5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S4Coubal2Jnr5n = 7Jnr took 5 of 7
S5Coubal1Jnr3n = 4Jnr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalJnrC − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.842.0−5.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 382 vs 242 / 46946.9%51.6%179 / 382 vs 242 / 469Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrCoubal 2.75/Jnr 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal—5870J. Jnr—1111113
LAug 23 · 17:30V. Coubal—311111352J. Jnr—119915113
LJul 7 · 16:00V. Coubal—134130J. Jnr—1511153
LJul 6 · 10:45V. Coubal—761181J. Jnr—11116113
LJun 26 · 20:44V. Coubal—11122752J. Jnr—8101111113
LJun 26 · 18:30V. Coubal—111215762J. Jnr—7141311113
WJun 7 · 14:45V. Coubal—911812113J. Jnr—119111082
LMay 20 · 18:00V. Coubal—117961J. Jnr—81111113
WMay 12 · 09:03V. Coubal—1111113J. Jnr—9980
WMay 12 · 06:00V. Coubal—51111113J. Jnr—119361
V. Coubal10
LSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113WSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091
J. Jnr10
WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791WAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Coubal
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J. Jnr
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