TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008548
Played Aug 25Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1176111210119––
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:49 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 70.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 29–43 Marcel Cmil Vaclav Coubal has won 29 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:49What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-43 in 72
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 14 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1224 vs Cmil 1415
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 20% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 10% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal -3 · Cmil +2
Coubal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coubal form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 2.50 / Cmil 1.50
Signal prob.30% / 71%
Edge (Cmil)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #13008548
Coubal2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 38 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Cmil1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 101 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it77% 66 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal3wins
AwayCmil7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal37.5%3 of 8
AwayCmiln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal8Cmil2n = 10Coubal took 8 of 10
S2Coubal1Cmil9n = 10Cmil took 9 of 10
S3Coubal2Cmil8n = 10Cmil took 8 of 10
S4Coubal6Cmil4n = 10Coubal took 6 of 10
S5Coubal3Cmil4n = 7Cmil took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalCmilCoubal − CmilBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.844.9−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 389 vs 367 / 67847.3%54.1%184 / 389 vs 367 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCoubal 2.50/Cmil 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.5%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 20:33V. Coubal—1254111M. Cmil—101111133
WAug 24 · 17:30V. Coubal—111195113M. Cmil—59111142
LAug 16 · 19:30V. Coubal—119101142M. Cmil—411128113
LJul 28 · 17:30V. Coubal—511111152M. Cmil—111395113
WJul 27 · 14:00V. Coubal—117811113M. Cmil—81111822
LJul 26 · 20:00V. Coubal—5101281M. Cmil—111210113
LJul 14 · 14:00V. Coubal—118912102M. Cmil—4111110123
WJun 29 · 20:59V. Coubal—1110411113M. Cmil—61211682
LJun 29 · 18:30V. Coubal—128691M. Cmil—101111113
LJun 26 · 19:30V. Coubal—117612102M. Cmil—7111110123
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal2.63114651M. Holub1.4461111113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113WAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111
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