TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067555
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Vrnak
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911112711711––
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vrnak above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 63.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vrnak 13–28 Marcel Cmil Jan Vrnak has won 13 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cmil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-28 in 41
Cmil
Correct
gap of 15 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrnak 1146 vs Cmil 1343
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrnak 0% vs Cmil 40%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrnak 20% vs Cmil 50%
Cmil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrnak -5 · Cmil -2
Vrnak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrnak 2.50 / Cmil 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Cmil)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067555
Vrnak2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Cmil1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 99 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 66 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrnak2wins
AwayCmil8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrnak40%2 of 5
AwayCmil100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrnak5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S2Vrnak2Cmil8n = 10Cmil took 8 of 10
S3Vrnak4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Vrnak1Cmil7n = 8Cmil took 7 of 8
S5Vrnak2Cmil2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrnakCmilV − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.043.3−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrnakCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 215 vs 365 / 67443.7%54.2%94 / 215 vs 365 / 674Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilVrnak 2.50/Cmil 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 08:34J. Vrnak—111011562M. Cmil—312711113
LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak—911771M. Cmil—11211113
LJun 8 · 08:34J. Vrnak—1511141172M. Cmil—1381613113
WJun 8 · 07:30J. Vrnak—138411133M. Cmil—1111115112
LMay 15 · 07:00J. Vrnak—95100M. Cmil—1111123
LApr 9 · 08:00J. Vrnak—851151M. Cmil—11119113
WMar 12 · 06:30J. Vrnak—116131113M. Cmil—711111192
LFeb 15 · 22:00J. Vrnak—9131261M. Cmil—111510113
LFeb 15 · 19:00J. Vrnak—1131091M. Cmil—51112103
LFeb 12 · 08:00J. Vrnak—10990M. Cmil—1211113
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350WAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak1.801111113A. Akopyan1.914690
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
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