TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378972
Played Aug 8Finished
Jan Vrnak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111614911711––
Martin Holub
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:03 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vrnak above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 83 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 65.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vrnak 19–34 Martin Holub Jan Vrnak has won 19 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-34 in 53
Holub
Correct
gap of 15 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrnak 1236 vs Holub 1317
Holub
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrnak 40% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrnak 40% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrnak -1 · Holub +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrnak 2.38 / Holub 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Holub)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378972
Vrnak2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 21 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Holub1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrnak3wins
AwayHolub7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrnak50%3 of 6
AwayHolub100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrnak6Holub4n = 10Vrnak took 6 of 10
S2Vrnak3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S3Vrnak3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Vrnak2Holub7n = 9Holub took 7 of 9
S5Vrnak2Holub1n = 3Vrnak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrnakHolubV − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.6−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrnakHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 211 vs 351 / 65445%53.7%95 / 211 vs 351 / 654Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubVrnak 2.38/Holub 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.8%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 06:00J. Vrnak—791161M. Holub—11119113
LJul 30 · 06:00J. Vrnak—9114111M. Holub—11611133
LJun 25 · 08:58J. Vrnak—7118101M. Holub—11911123
WJun 25 · 05:45J. Vrnak—1121011113M. Holub—91112882
LJun 22 · 09:08J. Vrnak—71060M. Holub—1112113
LJun 22 · 05:30J. Vrnak—1188131M. Holub—91111153
WMay 28 · 05:30J. Vrnak—111194113M. Holub—77111172
LMay 15 · 08:38J. Vrnak—11911892M. Holub—611511113
LMay 15 · 05:30J. Vrnak—117941M. Holub—31111113
WMar 31 · 18:30J. Vrnak—13711123M. Holub—11117101
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350WAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak1.801111113A. Akopyan1.914690
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350
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