TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367291
Played Aug 6Finished
Jan Vrnak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114116119––––
Artur Akopyan
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Vrnak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vrnak above · Artur Akopyan below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 52 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jan Vrnak at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vrnak 19–20 Artur Akopyan Jan Vrnak has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vrnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-20 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrnak 1236 vs Akopyan 1170
Vrnak
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrnak 20% vs Akopyan 0%
Vrnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrnak 30% vs Akopyan 10%
Vrnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrnak -3 · Akopyan -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vrnak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Akopyan form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrnak 1.80 / Akopyan 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vrnak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12367291
Vrnak1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 12 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Akopyan1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 54 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrnak3wins
AwayAkopyan7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAkopyan leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrnak50%3 of 6
AwayAkopyan100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrnak6Akopyan4n = 10Vrnak took 6 of 10
S2Vrnak5Akopyan5n = 10split evenly
S3Vrnak4Akopyan6n = 10Akopyan took 6 of 10
S4Vrnak1Akopyan3n = 4Akopyan took 3 of 4
S5Vrnak0Akopyan3n = 3Akopyan took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrnakAkopyanV − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.735.9−2.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrnakAkopyanBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 211 vs 245 / 56845%43.1%95 / 211 vs 245 / 568Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrnakVrnak 1.80/Akopyan 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vrnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vrnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak—1111113A. Akopyan—4690
WJul 30 · 07:00J. Vrnak—1111113A. Akopyan—5470
LJun 22 · 06:30J. Vrnak—121191152A. Akopyan—1013117113
LApr 23 · 05:30J. Vrnak—4760A. Akopyan—1111113
WMar 26 · 09:13J. Vrnak—1111113A. Akopyan—8980
LMar 26 · 07:45J. Vrnak—88130A. Akopyan—1111153
LMar 19 · 06:30J. Vrnak—10770A. Akopyan—1211113
LMar 12 · 08:30J. Vrnak—12711652A. Akopyan—1011911113
LFeb 5 · 06:30J. Vrnak—11117852A. Akopyan—971111113
LJan 29 · 10:10J. Vrnak—9111071A. Akopyan—11812113
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350WAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113
A. Akopyan10
WSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191WSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741LSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642LSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113LSep 5 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.754890L. Krutina1.401111113WSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490LAug 19 · 13:15M. Holub1.83101111113A. Akopyan1.83124471WAug 19 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.501113113V. Kucala1.5091140
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