TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12369868
Played Aug 6Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 0
Set by set
75––––––––
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:05 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 7-5
Point 12 set 1, 7-5 — our read held Martin Holub at 65.5%
12 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 34–19 Jan Vrnak Jan Vrnak has won 19 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-19 in 53
Holub
Correct
gap of 15 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1317 vs Vrnak 1236
Holub
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Vrnak 40%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Vrnak 40%
Holub
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -1 · Vrnak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.44 / Vrnak 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Holub)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12369868
Holub1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 99 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 97
Vrnak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayVrnak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%4 of 4
AwayVrnak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub4Vrnak6n = 10Vrnak took 6 of 10
S2Holub7Vrnak3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S3Holub7Vrnak3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Holub7Vrnak2n = 9Holub took 7 of 9
S5Holub1Vrnak2n = 3Vrnak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubVrnakH − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.638.0+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 658 vs 95 / 21153.7%45%353 / 658 vs 95 / 211Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.44/Vrnak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–0
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 06:00M. Holub—11119113J. Vrnak—791161
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Holub—11611133J. Vrnak—9114111
WJun 25 · 08:58M. Holub—11911123J. Vrnak—7118101
LJun 25 · 05:45M. Holub—91112882J. Vrnak—1121011113
WJun 22 · 09:08M. Holub—1112113J. Vrnak—71060
WJun 22 · 05:30M. Holub—91111153J. Vrnak—1188131
LMay 28 · 05:30M. Holub—77111172J. Vrnak—111194113
WMay 15 · 08:38M. Holub—611511113J. Vrnak—11911892
WMay 15 · 05:30M. Holub—31111113J. Vrnak—117941
LMar 31 · 18:30M. Holub—11117101J. Vrnak—13711123
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113WAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak1.801111113A. Akopyan1.914690
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