TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084238
Played Sep 6Finished
Patrik Muller
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012711611––
Martin Holub
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 67.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Muller 6–13 Martin Holub Patrik Muller has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Holub
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1227 vs Holub 1382
Holub
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 20% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller +1 · Holub +3
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 2.63 / Holub 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Holub)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084238
Muller2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 17 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Holub1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 106 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it76% 77 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller4wins
AwayHolub6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller75%3 of 4
AwayHolub83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Muller5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Muller5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Muller3Holub6n = 9Holub took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerHolubM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.2−3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 147 vs 367 / 66644.9%55.1%66 / 147 vs 367 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubMuller 2.63/Holub 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller—1110761M. Holub—81211113
LJun 26 · 09:30P. Muller—311681M. Holub—11811113
LJun 13 · 13:15P. Muller—1081141M. Holub—12118113
LJun 3 · 10:00P. Muller—591161M. Holub—11119113
WApr 28 · 12:43P. Muller—11114113M. Holub—971161
WApr 28 · 11:45P. Muller—1111113M. Holub—7990
WApr 23 · 10:15P. Muller—8111111113M. Holub—11813692
LApr 13 · 11:00P. Muller—671181M. Holub—11118113
LFeb 10 · 11:00P. Muller—411981M. Holub—11911113
WJan 15 · 15:00P. Muller—1181393M. Holub—9111161
P. Muller10
LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732LJun 28 · 09:30M. Cmil1.4013911113P. Muller2.751111851LJun 26 · 12:58P. Muller2.384680J. Krejcik1.531111113WJun 26 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.538101161P. Muller2.3811125113LJun 26 · 11:00L. Krutina1.571311113P. Muller2.2511480
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102WSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113
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