TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12113742
Played Jun 28Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311911118115––
Patrik Muller
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 79 set 4, 11-5
79 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 12–6 Patrik Muller Patrik Muller has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.40 / Muller 2.75
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Cmil)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12113742
Cmil1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 98 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 90
Muller2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 26 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil7wins
AwayMuller3wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil66.7%4 of 6
AwayMuller25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil6Muller4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Cmil6Muller4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cmil6Muller4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Cmil5Muller3n = 8Cmil took 5 of 8
S5Cmil4Muller3n = 7Cmil took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilMullerC − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.537.7+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 950 vs 85 / 21850.4%39%479 / 950 vs 85 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.40/Muller 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.3%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 22 · 12:43M. Cmil—811117113P. Muller—11761172
WJun 22 · 09:30M. Cmil—481111113P. Muller—11119752
WJun 13 · 15:15M. Cmil—11119113P. Muller—481161
WFeb 26 · 14:30M. Cmil—1111123P. Muller—56100
WFeb 16 · 11:00M. Cmil—1111113P. Muller—5770
LFeb 2 · 15:30M. Cmil—71181172P. Muller—115112103
WJan 15 · 19:15M. Cmil—131196113P. Muller—116111162
WJan 15 · 15:30M. Cmil—7121111113P. Muller—11145762
LDec 12 · 14:15M. Cmil—116118102P. Muller—711811123
LDec 12 · 13:00M. Cmil—11681152P. Muller—811116113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122
P. Muller10
LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732LJun 26 · 12:58P. Muller2.384680J. Krejcik1.531111113WJun 26 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.538101161P. Muller2.3811125113LJun 26 · 11:00L. Krutina1.571311113P. Muller2.2511480
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