TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13058114
Played Sep 1Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711117711––
Miroslav Cervenka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Miroslav Cervenka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11
74 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 11–10 Miroslav Cervenka Miroslav Cervenka has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cervenka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.61 / Cervenka 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Cmil)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13058114
Cmil1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 95 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 64 of 84
Cervenka2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 30 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil4wins
AwayCervenka6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCervenka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil50%3 of 6
AwayCervenka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil6Cervenka4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Cmil6Cervenka4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cmil4Cervenka6n = 10Cervenka took 6 of 10
S4Cmil5Cervenka4n = 9Cmil took 5 of 9
S5Cmil1Cervenka4n = 5Cervenka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilCervenkaCmil − CervenkaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.140.5+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilCervenkaBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 681 vs 89 / 22554.3%39.6%370 / 681 vs 89 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.61/Cervenka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cervenka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cmil—6114111M. Cervenka—11911133
WJun 19 · 15:15M. Cmil—1111113M. Cervenka—6750
LJun 1 · 17:14M. Cmil—118141072M. Cervenka—8111212113
LJun 1 · 15:00M. Cmil—111121082M. Cervenka—671112113
LMay 26 · 13:08M. Cmil—1361191M. Cervenka—15116113
LMay 26 · 10:30M. Cmil—1011101192M. Cervenka—126125113
WApr 22 · 06:30M. Cmil—91111113M. Cervenka—117671
LFeb 12 · 08:30M. Cmil—11871192M. Cervenka—811113113
WJan 31 · 20:00M. Cmil—11118113M. Cervenka—581181
WDec 8 · 09:35M. Cmil—1491011113M. Cervenka—121112472
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
M. Cervenka10
LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
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