TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022524
Played Aug 27Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1155111214411––
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 73 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 72.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 6–10 Antonin Skyba Miroslav Cervenka has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Skyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Skyba
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1192 vs Skyba 1191
Cervenka
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 0% vs Skyba 20%
Skyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 30% vs Skyba 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka -5 · Skyba -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 3.25 / Skyba 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Skyba)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13022524
Cervenka3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Skyba1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 21 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it62% 16 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCervenka2wins
AwaySkyba8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCervenkan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySkyba77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cervenka1Skyba9n = 10Skyba took 9 of 10
S2Cervenka2Skyba8n = 10Skyba took 8 of 10
S3Cervenka2Skyba8n = 10Skyba took 8 of 10
S4Cervenka2Skyba3n = 5Skyba took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricCervenkaSkybaC − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match28.638.1−9.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 219 vs 92 / 23139.3%39.8%86 / 219 vs 92 / 231Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaCervenka 3.25/Skyba 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 05:30M. Cervenka—10710A. Skyba—1211113
LJun 23 · 08:58M. Cervenka—871191A. Skyba—11119113
LJun 23 · 06:30M. Cervenka—9540A. Skyba—1111113
WMay 26 · 10:00M. Cervenka—771411113A. Skyba—111112972
WMay 19 · 06:30M. Cervenka—711911113A. Skyba—11511662
LApr 16 · 07:00M. Cervenka—115551A. Skyba—51111113
LApr 6 · 10:00M. Cervenka—5870A. Skyba—1111113
LMar 10 · 09:00M. Cervenka—21080A. Skyba—1112113
LMar 5 · 13:43M. Cervenka—2111031A. Skyba—11912113
LMar 5 · 12:45M. Cervenka—11490A. Skyba—1311113
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113
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