TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054742
Played Sep 1Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113116711911––
David Sabuka
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held David Sabuka at 75.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 0–5 David Sabuka Antonin Skyba has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Sabuka
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1194 vs Sabuka 1310
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 40% vs Sabuka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 30% vs Sabuka 50%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba -2 · Sabuka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Sabuka) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 3.75 / Sabuka 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Sabuka)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054742
Skyba3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 24 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Sabuka1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 64 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSkyba0wins
AwaySabuka5wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSabuka leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyban = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySabuka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba1Sabuka4n = 5Sabuka took 4 of 5
S2Skyba2Sabuka3n = 5Sabuka took 3 of 5
S3Skyba1Sabuka4n = 5Sabuka took 4 of 5
S4Skyba1Sabuka2n = 3Sabuka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSkybaSabukaSkyba − SabukaBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match32.442.0−9.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 238 vs 246 / 52539.9%46.9%95 / 238 vs 246 / 525Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSkyba 3.75/Sabuka 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 1 · 08:43A. Skyba—7940D. Sabuka—1111113
LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba—1111791D. Sabuka—13611113
LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba—12890D. Sabuka—1411113
LAug 27 · 09:30A. Skyba—11611252D. Sabuka—711811113
LAug 20 · 07:30A. Skyba—101131242D. Sabuka—1281110113
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113WAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122WAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113
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