TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055056
Played Sep 1Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11611131194111412
David Sabuka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 102 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 4–0 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cmil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Cmil
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1368 vs Sabuka 1309
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 60% vs Sabuka 40%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 50% vs Sabuka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil -1 · Sabuka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.73 / Sabuka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cmil)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13055056
Cmil1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 95 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 64 of 84
Sabuka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 31 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCmil4wins
AwaySabuka0wins
3 of 4 to a deciderCmil leads 4–0, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil2Sabuka2n = 4split evenly
S2Cmil3Sabuka1n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
S3Cmil1Sabuka3n = 4Sabuka took 3 of 4
S4Cmil3Sabuka1n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
S5Cmil3Sabuka0n = 3Cmil took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCmilSabukaC − SBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match45.240.8+4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 680 vs 245 / 52754.3%46.5%369 / 680 vs 245 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.73/Sabuka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 20 · 09:03M. Cmil—511113113D. Sabuka—11681142
WAug 20 · 06:00M. Cmil—11123123D. Sabuka—61011101
WJul 26 · 19:00M. Cmil—711711113D. Sabuka—11711742
WJul 20 · 07:30M. Cmil—11121011113D. Sabuka—91412562
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122WAug 30 · 10:30V. Kucala1.83112681D. Sabuka1.8391111113
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