TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054629
Played Sep 1Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1169111141311––
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 76 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 64.4%
76 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 11–11 Marcel Cmil Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1218 vs Cmil 1359
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 40% vs Cmil 80%
Cmil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 30% vs Cmil 50%
Cmil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka +2 · Cmil +3
Cmil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Cmil) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 2.63 / Cmil 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Cmil)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13054629
Cervenka2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Cmil1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 97 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCervenka7wins
AwayCmil3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCervenka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCervenka80%4 of 5
AwayCmil40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cervenka5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S2Cervenka4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cervenka5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S4Cervenka5Cmil4n = 9Cervenka took 5 of 9
S5Cervenka4Cmil0n = 4Cervenka took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCervenkaCmilCervenka − CmilBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.941.0−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 226 vs 368 / 67839.8%54.3%90 / 226 vs 368 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCervenka 2.63/Cmil 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cervenka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cervenka—11117113M. Cmil—971171
WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka—11911133M. Cmil—6114111
LJun 19 · 15:15M. Cervenka—6750M. Cmil—1111113
WJun 1 · 17:14M. Cervenka—8111212113M. Cmil—118141072
WJun 1 · 15:00M. Cervenka—671112113M. Cmil—111121082
WMay 26 · 13:08M. Cervenka—15116113M. Cmil—1361191
WMay 26 · 10:30M. Cervenka—126125113M. Cmil—1011101192
LApr 22 · 06:30M. Cervenka—117671M. Cmil—91111113
WFeb 12 · 08:30M. Cervenka—811113113M. Cmil—11871192
LJan 31 · 20:00M. Cervenka—581181M. Cmil—11118113
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122
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