TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067021
Played Sep 3Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1416118611119117
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 104 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 62.4%
104 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 12–20 Marcel Cmil Antonin Skyba has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-20 in 32
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1231 vs Cmil 1343
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 20% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 30% vs Cmil 50%
Cmil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba -1 · Cmil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cmil) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 2.38 / Cmil 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Cmil)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067021
Skyba2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 26 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Cmil1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 99 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 66 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkyba3wins
AwayCmil7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyba50%2 of 4
AwayCmil83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Skyba3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S3Skyba5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S4Skyba3Cmil5n = 8Cmil took 5 of 8
S5Skyba3Cmil4n = 7Cmil took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkybaCmilS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.845.5−5.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 238 vs 365 / 67439.9%54.2%95 / 238 vs 365 / 674Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilSkyba 2.38/Cmil 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba—1411611113M. Cmil—16811972
LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba—128714102M. Cmil—10111112123
LAug 20 · 06:30A. Skyba—94111182M. Cmil—111195113
LJun 18 · 12:19A. Skyba—61260M. Cmil—1114113
LJun 18 · 09:45A. Skyba—11411242M. Cmil—811411113
LMay 26 · 11:30A. Skyba—81112942M. Cmil—1161011113
WApr 20 · 05:30A. Skyba—111167113M. Cmil—97111132
WMar 3 · 13:00A. Skyba—129116113M. Cmil—101191192
LMar 2 · 12:00A. Skyba—116100M. Cmil—1311123
LFeb 16 · 13:00A. Skyba—6112101M. Cmil—111110123
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113WAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123
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