TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078962
Played Sep 5Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811119811911
Lukas Krutina
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krutina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Lukas Krutina below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Krutina at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 25–22 Lukas Krutina Lukas Krutina has won 22 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krutina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-22 in 47
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 3 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1343 vs Krutina 1342
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 40% vs Krutina 80%
Krutina
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 60% vs Krutina 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil +1 · Krutina +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krutina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krutina form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.83 / Krutina 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krutina)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13078962
Cmil1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Krutina1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil5wins
AwayKrutina5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil83.3%5 of 6
AwayKrutina100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil6Krutina4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Cmil6Krutina4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cmil5Krutina5n = 10split evenly
S4Cmil3Krutina6n = 9Krutina took 6 of 9
S5Cmil2Krutina2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilKrutinaC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.439.5−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilKrutinaBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 674 vs 107 / 20954.2%51.2%365 / 674 vs 107 / 209Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaCmil 1.83/Krutina 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil—7111191L. Krutina—11137113
WJun 27 · 16:00M. Cmil—111193113L. Krutina—68111182
LJun 22 · 10:30M. Cmil—91171172L. Krutina—119119113
WJun 13 · 13:45M. Cmil—1111113L. Krutina—6850
WJun 8 · 06:00M. Cmil—111167113L. Krutina—88111172
LJun 4 · 08:49M. Cmil—471151L. Krutina—11116113
WJun 4 · 07:45M. Cmil—11117113L. Krutina—871171
LJun 3 · 14:30M. Cmil—9119111L. Krutina—11611133
WMay 2 · 16:54M. Cmil—11711113L. Krutina—911991
LMay 2 · 14:15M. Cmil—11711472L. Krutina—61171183
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
L. Krutina10
LSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113LSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113WSep 5 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.754890L. Krutina1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113LSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123WAug 4 · 12:29L. Krutina1.441111113A. Akopyan2.636780LAug 4 · 12:00L. Krutina2.256580D. Sabuka1.571111113WAug 4 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.63512141172L. Krutina1.441110167113
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