TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13070398
Played Sep 3Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111210711115116
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 87 set 5, 11-6
87 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 27–13 Jan Vrnak Jan Vrnak has won 13 of their 40 meetings.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrnak form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.50 / Vrnak 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Cmil)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13070398
Cmil1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 97 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 85
Vrnak2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 19 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil7wins
AwayVrnak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil83.3%5 of 6
AwayVrnak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil6Vrnak4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Cmil7Vrnak3n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S3Cmil6Vrnak4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Cmil6Vrnak2n = 8Cmil took 6 of 8
S5Cmil1Vrnak2n = 3Vrnak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilVrnakC − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.737.7+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 681 vs 94 / 21454.2%43.9%369 / 681 vs 94 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.50/Vrnak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:30M. Cmil—11211113J. Vrnak—911771
WJun 8 · 08:34M. Cmil—1381613113J. Vrnak—1511141172
LJun 8 · 07:30M. Cmil—1111115112J. Vrnak—138411133
WMay 15 · 07:00M. Cmil—1111123J. Vrnak—95100
WApr 9 · 08:00M. Cmil—11119113J. Vrnak—851151
LMar 12 · 06:30M. Cmil—711111192J. Vrnak—116131113
WFeb 15 · 22:00M. Cmil—111510113J. Vrnak—9131261
WFeb 15 · 19:00M. Cmil—51112103J. Vrnak—1131091
WFeb 12 · 08:00M. Cmil—1211113J. Vrnak—10990
LJan 29 · 08:00M. Cmil—115571J. Vrnak—71111113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350WAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak1.801111113A. Akopyan1.914690
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