TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367319
Played Aug 6Finished
Tomas Holomek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911611––––
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Holomek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Holomek above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 55 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Tomas Holomek at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holomek 1–3 Jan Vrnak Tomas Holomek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:27What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holomek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Vrnak
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holomek 1191 vs Vrnak 1236
Vrnak
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holomek 20% vs Vrnak 40%
Vrnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holomek 20% vs Vrnak 40%
Vrnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holomek -1 · Vrnak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holomek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolomek 1.73 / Vrnak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holomek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12367319
Holomek1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite38% won 15 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Vrnak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 21 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHolomek1wins
AwayVrnak3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderVrnak leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolomekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVrnak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holomek1Vrnak3n = 4Vrnak took 3 of 4
S2Holomek2Vrnak2n = 4split evenly
S3Holomek2Vrnak2n = 4split evenly
S4Holomek1Vrnak2n = 3Vrnak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHolomekVrnakH − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match33.237.5−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolomekVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 140 vs 95 / 21143.6%45%61 / 140 vs 95 / 211Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolomekHolomek 1.73/Vrnak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holomek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek—7960J. Vrnak—1111113
WJun 4 · 11:15T. Holomek—41111113J. Vrnak—115791
LApr 9 · 08:33T. Holomek—11511992J. Vrnak—811511113
LApr 9 · 06:30T. Holomek—911541J. Vrnak—11611113
T. Holomek10
LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113LJul 27 · 16:00V. Coubal2.1011114113T. Holomek1.67881171LJul 27 · 15:00M. Cmil1.831111113T. Holomek1.837870
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak1.801111113A. Akopyan1.914690
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