TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12306731
Played Jul 27Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118117––––
Tomas Holomek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Tomas Holomek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 58.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 11–9 Tomas Holomek Tomas Holomek has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holomek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Cmil
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1410 vs Holomek 1241
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 60% vs Holomek 20%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 70% vs Holomek 30%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil -1 · Holomek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.83 / Holomek 1.83
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Cmil)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12306731
Cmil1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Holomek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil7wins
AwayHolomek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil87.5%7 of 8
AwayHolomekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil8Holomek2n = 10Cmil took 8 of 10
S2Cmil4Holomek6n = 10Holomek took 6 of 10
S3Cmil3Holomek7n = 10Holomek took 7 of 10
S4Cmil6Holomek2n = 8Cmil took 6 of 8
S5Cmil3Holomek1n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilHolomekC − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.7+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilHolomekBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 710 vs 64 / 14152.5%45.4%373 / 710 vs 64 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.83/Holomek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 29 · 20:00M. Cmil—10550T. Holomek—1211113
LJun 15 · 21:05M. Cmil—871181T. Holomek—11116113
WJun 15 · 18:00M. Cmil—1111113T. Holomek—9890
WApr 9 · 05:30M. Cmil—116812113T. Holomek—811111052
WDec 17 · 15:30M. Cmil—111113113T. Holomek—971591
WDec 4 · 13:32M. Cmil—1171111113T. Holomek—91113492
WDec 4 · 11:30M. Cmil—111113133T. Holomek—2415111
WNov 28 · 13:50M. Cmil—1181210123T. Holomek—5111012102
LNov 28 · 12:45M. Cmil—141081192T. Holomek—1212118113
WNov 14 · 11:45M. Cmil—11126113T. Holomek—7101151
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122
T. Holomek10
LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113LJul 27 · 16:00V. Coubal2.1011114113T. Holomek1.67881171
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