TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415557
Played Aug 13Finished
Artur Akopyan
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
26249111161210––
Tomas Holomek
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Holomek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Akopyan above · Tomas Holomek below
Set 1 · 26-24
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 109 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Holomek at 56.5%
109 points played in total.
H2H Artur Akopyan 9–11 Tomas Holomek Artur Akopyan has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:36What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Holomek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Holomek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Akopyan 1164 vs Holomek 1191
Holomek
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Akopyan 40% vs Holomek 20%
Akopyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Akopyan 30% vs Holomek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Akopyan -2 · Holomek -3
Holomek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holomek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAkopyan 2.50 / Holomek 1.50
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Holomek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12415557
Akopyan2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 52 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Holomek1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite36% won 13 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it59% 10 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAkopyan4wins
AwayHolomek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolomek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAkopyan75%3 of 4
AwayHolomek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Akopyan4Holomek6n = 10Holomek took 6 of 10
S2Akopyan5Holomek5n = 10split evenly
S3Akopyan6Holomek4n = 10Akopyan took 6 of 10
S4Akopyan2Holomek8n = 10Holomek took 8 of 10
S5Akopyan3Holomek2n = 5Akopyan took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAkopyanHolomekA − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.942.3−3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAkopyanHolomekBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 556 vs 61 / 14042.8%43.6%238 / 556 vs 61 / 140Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolomekAkopyan 2.50/Holomek 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Holomek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Akopyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan—116115113T. Holomek—61181182
LAug 6 · 05:30A. Akopyan—1112761T. Holomek—71411113
LJun 25 · 12:48A. Akopyan—511951T. Holomek—11811113
LJun 25 · 09:15A. Akopyan—71151152T. Holomek—119118113
WJun 11 · 12:33A. Akopyan—1161110113T. Holomek—71141242
LJun 11 · 10:00A. Akopyan—271181T. Holomek—11117113
LMay 6 · 16:30A. Akopyan—912111182T. Holomek—1110713113
WMay 6 · 14:30A. Akopyan—711117143T. Holomek—118911122
LFeb 26 · 12:00A. Akopyan—441131T. Holomek—11116113
WFeb 12 · 11:30A. Akopyan—11117113T. Holomek—831131
A. Akopyan10
WSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191WSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741LSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642LSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113LSep 5 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.754890L. Krutina1.401111113WSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490LAug 19 · 13:15M. Holub1.83101111113A. Akopyan1.83124471WAug 19 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.501113113V. Kucala1.5091140
T. Holomek10
LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113LJul 27 · 16:00V. Coubal2.1011114113T. Holomek1.67881171LJul 27 · 15:00M. Cmil1.831111113T. Holomek1.837870
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