TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415495
Played Aug 13Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171210––––
Tomas Holomek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched — 74.3% is still 74.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
74.3%
74.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Tomas Holomek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Martin Holub at 74.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 8–6 Tomas Holomek Tomas Holomek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:21What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Holub
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1340 vs Holomek 1191
Holub
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Holomek 20%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 50% vs Holomek 20%
Holub
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +2 · Holomek -3
Holomek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.40 / Holomek 2.75
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Holub)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415495
Holub1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 97 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 72 of 94
Holomek2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog44% won 12 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayHolomek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%6 of 6
AwayHolomek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub6Holomek4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Holub8Holomek2n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S3Holub6Holomek4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub4Holomek2n = 6Holub took 4 of 6
S5Holub1Holomek2n = 3Holomek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubHolomekHolub − HolomekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.833.9+5.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubHolomekBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 667 vs 61 / 14053.7%43.6%358 / 667 vs 61 / 140Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.40/Holomek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.3%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 06:30M. Holub—1211113T. Holomek—10480
WJul 20 · 14:30M. Holub—1211113T. Holomek—10750
LMay 21 · 12:38M. Holub—11950T. Holomek—1311113
WMay 21 · 11:30M. Holub—111012113T. Holomek—5121061
WApr 23 · 12:23M. Holub—11114133T. Holomek—4911111
WApr 23 · 09:45M. Holub—1111113T. Holomek—6660
WJan 22 · 14:05M. Holub—13111110123T. Holomek—159712102
WJan 22 · 10:30M. Holub—111112113T. Holomek—871441
LDec 4 · 10:30M. Holub—71181172T. Holomek—117114113
LNov 6 · 12:00M. Holub—71111862T. Holomek—117411113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
T. Holomek10
LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113LJul 27 · 16:00V. Coubal2.1011114113T. Holomek1.67881171LJul 27 · 15:00M. Cmil1.831111113T. Holomek1.837870
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