TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084650
Played Sep 6Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210711118411911
Martin Holub
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 67.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 29–36 Martin Holub Vaclav Coubal has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-36 in 65
Holub
Correct
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1272 vs Holub 1382
Holub
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 30% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +1 · Holub +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 3.40 / Holub 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 76%
Edge (Holub)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084650
Coubal3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Holub1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 106 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it76% 77 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal2wins
AwayHolub8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal40%2 of 5
AwayHolub100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Coubal5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Coubal3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Coubal2Holub5n = 7Holub took 5 of 7
S5Coubal0Holub3n = 3Holub took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalHolubC − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.040.2−6.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 381 vs 367 / 66646.7%55.1%178 / 381 vs 367 / 666Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubCoubal 3.40/Holub 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:08V. Coubal—5460M. Holub—1111113
LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal—12711492M. Holub—1011811113
LAug 25 · 15:30V. Coubal—611851M. Holub—11811113
LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal—114651M. Holub—61111113
LAug 16 · 18:00V. Coubal—12670M. Holub—1411113
WAug 9 · 15:00V. Coubal—11116123M. Holub—9611101
LJul 26 · 18:30V. Coubal—111191162M. Holub—741113113
WJul 14 · 16:59V. Coubal—1111123M. Holub—97100
LJul 14 · 16:00V. Coubal—3111281M. Holub—111310113
LJul 7 · 14:30V. Coubal—71381162M. Holub—1111115113
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal2.63114651M. Holub1.4461111113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851WAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal2.63114651M. Holub1.4461111113
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