TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084364
Played Sep 6Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11813111311––––
Patrik Muller
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Coubal to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 67 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Vaclav Coubal at 54.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 5–3 Patrik Muller Patrik Muller has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Coubal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Coubal
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1272 vs Muller 1227
Coubal
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 40% vs Muller 20%
Coubal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 40% vs Muller 20%
Coubal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +1 · Muller -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Coubal) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 1.61 / Muller 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Coubal)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084364
Coubal1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it68% 25 of 37
Muller2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 17 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeCoubal5wins
AwayMuller3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderCoubal leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal66.7%2 of 3
AwayMuller40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal3Muller5n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S2Coubal6Muller2n = 8Coubal took 6 of 8
S3Coubal5Muller3n = 8Coubal took 5 of 8
S4Coubal3Muller4n = 7Muller took 4 of 7
S5Coubal2Muller1n = 3Coubal took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricCoubalMullerC − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match41.641.4+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 381 vs 66 / 14746.7%44.9%178 / 381 vs 66 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CoubalCoubal 1.61/Muller 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Coubal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal—1113133P. Muller—811110
WApr 30 · 12:43V. Coubal—81111113P. Muller—118781
LApr 30 · 09:15V. Coubal—11116882P. Muller—991111113
LApr 28 · 09:15V. Coubal—511981P. Muller—11911113
WFeb 26 · 15:30V. Coubal—61311113P. Muller—1111321
WOct 30 · 11:30V. Coubal—126118133P. Muller—1011611112
WMay 2 · 11:30V. Coubal—451111143P. Muller—111199122
LApr 8 · 11:30V. Coubal—1213891P. Muller—141111103
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal2.63114651M. Holub1.4461111113
P. Muller10
LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732LJun 28 · 09:30M. Cmil1.4013911113P. Muller2.751111851LJun 26 · 12:58P. Muller2.384680J. Krejcik1.531111113WJun 26 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.538101161P. Muller2.3811125113LJun 26 · 11:00L. Krutina1.571311113P. Muller2.2511480
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