TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008567
Played Aug 25Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811118115––
Vaclav Coubal
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:47 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Vaclav Coubal below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Holub at 71.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 33–29 Vaclav Coubal Vaclav Coubal has won 29 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-29 in 62
Holub
Correct
gap of 4 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1403 vs Coubal 1242
Holub
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Coubal 20%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Coubal 20%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -2 · Coubal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coubal form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.44 / Coubal 2.63
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Holub)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #13008567
Holub1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 104 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 77 of 100
Coubal2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 38 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayCoubal3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%5 of 5
AwayCoubal60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Coubal5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub5Coubal5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub8Coubal2n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S4Holub3Coubal3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubCoubalH − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.032.9+5.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubCoubalBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 668 vs 185 / 39155.1%47.3%368 / 668 vs 185 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.44/Coubal 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 18:30M. Holub—61111113V. Coubal—114651
WAug 16 · 18:00M. Holub—1411113V. Coubal—12670
LAug 9 · 15:00M. Holub—9611101V. Coubal—11116123
WJul 26 · 18:30M. Holub—741113113V. Coubal—111191162
LJul 14 · 16:59M. Holub—97100V. Coubal—1111123
WJul 14 · 16:00M. Holub—111310113V. Coubal—3111281
WJul 7 · 14:30M. Holub—1111115113V. Coubal—71381162
LJun 11 · 18:00M. Holub—981181V. Coubal—11113113
WJun 7 · 16:28M. Holub—1112113V. Coubal—61080
WJun 7 · 15:15M. Holub—1111113V. Coubal—6470
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal2.63114651M. Holub1.4461111113
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