TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482322
Played Aug 24Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911311––––
Milan Vydra
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Vydra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Milan Vydra below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 56 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Milan Vydra at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 5–4 Milan Vydra Milan Vydra has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vydra
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1240 vs Vydra 1324
Vydra
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 20% vs Vydra 60%
Vydra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 20% vs Vydra 70%
Vydra
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal -1 · Vydra +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vydra)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coubal form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 1.83 / Vydra 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vydra)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482322
Coubal1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Vydra1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeCoubal5wins
AwayVydra4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderCoubal leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal80%4 of 5
AwayVydra75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal5Vydra4n = 9Coubal took 5 of 9
S2Coubal5Vydra4n = 9Coubal took 5 of 9
S3Coubal5Vydra4n = 9Coubal took 5 of 9
S4Coubal5Vydra1n = 6Coubal took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricCoubalVydraC − VBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.335.0+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalVydraBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 387 vs 111 / 22747.6%48.9%184 / 387 vs 111 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VydraCoubal 1.83/Vydra 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vydra · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vydra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 27 · 16:59V. Coubal—81151172M. Vydra—113115113
WJul 27 · 14:30V. Coubal—51112123M. Vydra—11710101
LJul 6 · 12:13V. Coubal—6680M. Vydra—1111113
WJul 6 · 09:45V. Coubal—111110113M. Vydra—861281
LMay 24 · 16:00V. Coubal—133931M. Vydra—111111113
WJul 14 · 14:00V. Coubal—1111113M. Vydra—7870
WJul 11 · 10:00V. Coubal—1111113M. Vydra—9370
WMar 26 · 13:50V. Coubal—11711113M. Vydra—911881
LMar 26 · 10:45V. Coubal—65111162M. Vydra—111169113
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal2.63114651M. Holub1.4461111113
M. Vydra10
LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250LAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133WAug 19 · 12:43M. Vydra2.251311113V. Kucala1.5711540LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra1.671491111102M. Holub2.10161158123WAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113LAug 19 · 10:00V. Kucala1.6781111153M. Vydra2.101145131WAug 10 · 09:08A. Akopyan2.637111151M. Vydra1.4411813113WAug 10 · 07:30M. Vydra2.008111211113F. Fryml1.7311314932WAug 10 · 06:30M. Vydra1.30128117113A. Skyba3.40101141182
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