TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392207
Played Aug 10Finished
Milan Vydra
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210811114711118
Antonin Skyba
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Vydra above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vydra 5–0 Antonin Skyba Antonin Skyba has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:16What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Vydra
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Vydra
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vydra 1336 vs Skyba 1177
Vydra
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vydra 80% vs Skyba 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vydra 60% vs Skyba 40%
Vydra
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vydra +4 · Skyba -1
Vydra
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Vydra) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVydra 1.30 / Skyba 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Vydra)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392207
Vydra1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 30 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it70% 21 of 30
Skyba3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 24 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVydra5wins
AwaySkyba0wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVydra leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVydra100%3 of 3
AwaySkyban = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vydra3Skyba2n = 5Vydra took 3 of 5
S2Vydra4Skyba1n = 5Vydra took 4 of 5
S3Vydra4Skyba1n = 5Vydra took 4 of 5
S4Vydra2Skyba1n = 3Vydra took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVydraSkybaV − SBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.636.2+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVydraSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 236 vs 91 / 23048.7%39.6%115 / 236 vs 91 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VydraVydra 1.30/Skyba 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Vydra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vydra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 10 · 06:30M. Vydra—128117113A. Skyba—101141182
WJul 9 · 05:30M. Vydra—1111113A. Skyba—9660
WMay 8 · 05:45M. Vydra—1111123A. Skyba—96100
WJul 21 · 13:00M. Vydra—411211113A. Skyba—11911792
WJul 21 · 10:00M. Vydra—121411113A. Skyba—1412991
M. Vydra10
LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250LAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133WAug 19 · 12:43M. Vydra2.251311113V. Kucala1.5711540LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra1.671491111102M. Holub2.10161158123WAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113LAug 19 · 10:00V. Kucala1.6781111153M. Vydra2.101145131WAug 10 · 09:08A. Akopyan2.637111151M. Vydra1.4411813113WAug 10 · 07:30M. Vydra2.008111211113F. Fryml1.7311314932
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113
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