TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055050
Played Sep 1Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611611––––
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 74.5% is still 74.5%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
74.5%
74.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 74.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 6–12 Antonin Skyba Miroslav Cervenka has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Skyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Skyba
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1218 vs Skyba 1194
Cervenka
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 60% vs Skyba 40%
Cervenka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 30% vs Skyba 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka +3 · Skyba -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Skyba) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 3.25 / Skyba 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Skyba)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13055050
Cervenka3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Skyba1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 21 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCervenka2wins
AwaySkyba8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCervenkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkyba75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cervenka2Skyba8n = 10Skyba took 8 of 10
S2Cervenka1Skyba9n = 10Skyba took 9 of 10
S3Cervenka2Skyba8n = 10Skyba took 8 of 10
S4Cervenka2Skyba3n = 5Skyba took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricCervenkaSkybaC − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.537.7−9.2per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 226 vs 95 / 23839.8%39.9%90 / 226 vs 95 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaCervenka 3.25/Skyba 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka—5660A. Skyba—1111113
LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka—1151241A. Skyba—51114113
LAug 14 · 05:30M. Cervenka—10710A. Skyba—1211113
LJun 23 · 08:58M. Cervenka—871191A. Skyba—11119113
LJun 23 · 06:30M. Cervenka—9540A. Skyba—1111113
WMay 26 · 10:00M. Cervenka—771411113A. Skyba—111112972
WMay 19 · 06:30M. Cervenka—711911113A. Skyba—11511662
LApr 16 · 07:00M. Cervenka—115551A. Skyba—51111113
LApr 6 · 10:00M. Cervenka—5870A. Skyba—1111113
LMar 10 · 09:00M. Cervenka—21080A. Skyba—1112113
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113WAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113
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