TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022573
Played Aug 27Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214116511811––
Vit Kilian
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeVit Kilian to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · Vit Kilian below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vit Kilian at 57.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 2–7 Vit Kilian Miroslav Cervenka has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kilian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Kilian
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1205 vs Kilian 1168
Cervenka
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 20% vs Kilian 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 30% vs Kilian 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka -4 · Kilian -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kilian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kilian form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 2.10 / Kilian 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kilian)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13022573
Cervenka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Kilian1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 6 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeCervenka2wins
AwayKilian7wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKilian leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCervenka66.7%2 of 3
AwayKilian100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cervenka3Kilian6n = 9Kilian took 6 of 9
S2Cervenka5Kilian4n = 9Cervenka took 5 of 9
S3Cervenka3Kilian6n = 9Kilian took 6 of 9
S4Cervenka5Kilian3n = 8Cervenka took 5 of 8
S5Cervenka0Kilian4n = 4Kilian took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricCervenkaKilianC − KBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match39.043.8−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaKilianBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 218 vs 88 / 19239.5%45.8%86 / 218 vs 88 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KilianCervenka 2.10/Kilian 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Kilian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kilian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 20 · 15:00M. Cervenka—14711113V. Kilian—1211891
LMay 29 · 10:30M. Cervenka—513111542V. Kilian—1115713113
LMay 21 · 13:08M. Cervenka—9121161V. Kilian—111013113
WMay 21 · 12:00M. Cervenka—11118113V. Kilian—991181
LNov 28 · 10:05M. Cervenka—7650V. Kilian—1111113
LNov 28 · 06:45M. Cervenka—61281192V. Kilian—1110118113
LOct 13 · 11:30M. Cervenka—61371182V. Kilian—1111115113
LOct 1 · 12:37M. Cervenka—117871V. Kilian—21111113
LOct 1 · 10:30M. Cervenka—51111842V. Kilian—117711113
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
V. Kilian10
LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113LAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861LAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kilian2.1071211872D. Sabuka1.671110511113LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971LJul 20 · 15:30T. Holomek1.57911149143V. Kilian2.251171211122LJul 20 · 15:00V. Kilian1.531211891M. Cervenka2.3814711113
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