TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022701
Played Aug 27Finished
David Sabuka
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116118––––
Vit Kilian
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Vit Kilian below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held David Sabuka at 70.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 2–0 Vit Kilian Vit Kilian has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1290 vs Kilian 1181
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 60% vs Kilian 20%
Sabuka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 50% vs Kilian 30%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +2 · Kilian +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Sabuka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kilian form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.33 / Kilian 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Sabuka)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022701
Sabuka1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 58 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Kilian3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back28% 10 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSabuka2wins
AwayKilian0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderSabuka leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSabukaKilianS − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match45.537.5+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaKilianBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 526 vs 89 / 19345.8%46.1%241 / 526 vs 89 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSabuka 1.33/Kilian 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka—111011113V. Kilian—412861
WAug 24 · 11:00D. Sabuka—1110511113V. Kilian—71211872
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122
V. Kilian10
LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113WAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861LAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kilian2.1071211872D. Sabuka1.671110511113LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971LJul 20 · 15:30T. Holomek1.57911149143V. Kilian2.251171211122LJul 20 · 15:00V. Kilian1.531211891M. Cervenka2.3814711113
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