Tomas Holomek vs Vit Kilian 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #12266971

Played Jul 20Finished

Tomas Holomek

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

91111714129111412

Vit Kilian

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Tomas Holomek to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingTomas Holomek above · Vit Kilian below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 14-12

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 14-12

Point 110 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Tomas Holomek at 58.9%

110 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Holomek 5–7 Vit Kilian Tomas Holomek has won 5 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 15:00

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Holomek

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

5-7 in 12

Kilian

Wrong

gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Holomek 1273 vs Kilian 1198

Holomek

Correct

both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Holomek 20% vs Kilian 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Holomek 30% vs Kilian 20%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Holomek -1 · Kilian -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holomek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kilian form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHolomek 1.57 / Kilian 2.25

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Holomek)+0.0pp

Setka Cup · #12266971

Holomek1.57

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite42% won 15 of 36

Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6

Up 1–0, closes it67% 14 of 21

Kilian2.25

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog47% won 33 of 71

Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeHolomek4wins

AwayKilian6wins

6 of 10 to a deciderKilian leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeHolomek42.9%3 of 7

AwayKilian66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Holomek7Kilian3n = 10Holomek took 7 of 10

S2Holomek4Kilian6n = 10Kilian took 6 of 10

S3Holomek5Kilian5n = 10split evenly

S4Holomek5Kilian3n = 8Holomek took 5 of 8

S5Holomek1Kilian5n = 6Kilian took 5 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away550%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricHolomekKilianH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.841.3+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHolomekKilianBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 137 vs 99 / 21846%45.4%63 / 137 vs 99 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Holomek

Holomek 1.57/Kilian 2.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.9%

Holomek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Holomek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LJul 9 · 11:30T. Holomek—111011892V. Kilian—912311113

LJun 25 · 11:45T. Holomek—11591182V. Kilian—811116113

LJun 11 · 11:00T. Holomek—119111372V. Kilian—511215113

WMay 21 · 09:30T. Holomek—111020113V. Kilian—5121881

LFeb 12 · 12:30T. Holomek—71112792V. Kilian—1151011113

WOct 9 · 10:30T. Holomek—1211103V. Kilian—10870

LApr 24 · 12:30T. Holomek—11991172V. Kilian—911116113

WApr 24 · 11:30T. Holomek—811313113V. Kilian—117111182

LMar 13 · 13:00T. Holomek—7760V. Kilian—1111113

WFeb 26 · 11:00T. Holomek—11117113V. Kilian—681161

T. Holomek10

LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782 LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113 LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100 LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101 LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182 LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113 LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113 WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761 LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113 LJul 27 · 16:00V. Coubal2.1011114113T. Holomek1.67881171

V. Kilian10

LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113 LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113 LAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680 WAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113 LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861 LAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100 LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kilian2.1071211872D. Sabuka1.671110511113 LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113 WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971 LJul 20 · 15:00V. Kilian1.531211891M. Cervenka2.3814711113

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