TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481898
Played Aug 24Finished
Vit Kilian
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111210115811711
David Sabuka
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Kilian above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held David Sabuka at 57.8%
93 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kilian 1199 vs Sabuka 1275
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kilian 20% vs Sabuka 40%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kilian 20% vs Sabuka 40%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kilian -1 · Sabuka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sabuka) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKilian 2.10 / Sabuka 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sabuka)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12481898
Kilian2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 23 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Sabuka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 56 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKilianSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 189 vs 242 / 52946.6%45.8%88 / 189 vs 242 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaKilian 2.10/Sabuka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sabuka won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Kilian10
LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113LAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680WAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861LAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971LJul 20 · 15:30T. Holomek1.57911149143V. Kilian2.251171211122LJul 20 · 15:00V. Kilian1.531211891M. Cervenka2.3814711113
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100WAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680WAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861
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