TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12481677
Played Aug 24Finished
Viktor Kucala
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
15131151210––––
Vit Kilian
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Kucala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Kucala above · Vit Kilian below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 66 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Viktor Kucala at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Kucala 1–0 Vit Kilian Vit Kilian has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kucala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kucala 1228 vs Kilian 1177
Kucala
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucala 40% vs Kilian 20%
Kucala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucala 50% vs Kilian 20%
Kucala
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucala +2 · Kilian -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kucala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kilian form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucala 1.73 / Kilian 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kucala)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12481677
Kucala1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 50 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Kilian2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 23 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKucala1wins
AwayKilian0wins
Kucala leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKucalaKilianKucala − KilianBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.028.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucalaKilianBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 272 vs 88 / 19146.3%46.1%126 / 272 vs 88 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucalaKucala 1.73/Kilian 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kucala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kucala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala—1511123V. Kilian—135100
V. Kucala10
WAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113WAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113LAug 30 · 12:39J. Seeman1.57691111113V. Kucala2.2511116582LAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113LAug 30 · 10:30V. Kucala1.83112681D. Sabuka1.8391111113LAug 30 · 09:30V. Kucala2.0071280J. Seeman1.731114113LAug 24 · 12:58J. Krejcik2.001111113V. Kucala1.734370WAug 24 · 10:30V. Kucala2.201311113J. Krejcik1.6111880
V. Kilian10
LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113LAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680WAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kilian2.1071211872D. Sabuka1.671110511113LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971LJul 20 · 15:30T. Holomek1.57911149143V. Kilian2.251171211122LJul 20 · 15:00V. Kilian1.531211891M. Cervenka2.3814711113
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