TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043793
Played Aug 30Finished
Viktor Kucala
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511311611––––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Kucala above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 47 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 58.9%
47 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Kucala 9–6 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Kucala
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucala 1198 vs Moulis 1363
Moulis
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucala 40% vs Moulis 80%
Moulis
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucala 40% vs Moulis 70%
Moulis
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucala -3 · Moulis +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moulis) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucala 2.50 / Moulis 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Moulis)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043793
Kucala2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 19 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Moulis1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 28 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKucala6wins
AwayMoulis4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKucala leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucala100%6 of 6
AwayMoulis100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucala6Moulis4n = 10Kucala took 6 of 10
S2Kucala5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S3Kucala5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S4Kucala2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKucalaMoulisK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.335.5−0.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucalaMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 275 vs 200 / 43545.8%46%126 / 275 vs 200 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisKucala 2.50/Moulis 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 16:59V. Kucala—911751P. Moulis—11911113
LJul 25 · 16:00V. Kucala—96110P. Moulis—1111133
WApr 24 · 10:30V. Kucala—1111113P. Moulis—9860
LFeb 10 · 20:30V. Kucala—9970P. Moulis—1111113
LJan 17 · 21:00V. Kucala—5411101P. Moulis—11116123
WAug 30 · 16:55V. Kucala—117116103P. Moulis—81181192
WAug 30 · 14:45V. Kucala—14128113P. Moulis—12101161
WAug 23 · 18:00V. Kucala—1511113P. Moulis—13890
WJul 12 · 14:15V. Kucala—1111133P. Moulis—78110
WJul 6 · 11:00V. Kucala—115711113P. Moulis—81111732
V. Kucala10
WAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113WAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113LAug 30 · 12:39J. Seeman1.57691111113V. Kucala2.2511116582LAug 30 · 10:30V. Kucala1.83112681D. Sabuka1.8391111113LAug 30 · 09:30V. Kucala2.0071280J. Seeman1.731114113LAug 24 · 12:58J. Krejcik2.001111113V. Kucala1.734370WAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100WAug 24 · 10:30V. Kucala2.201311113J. Krejcik1.6111880
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381
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