TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060574
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119117811115––
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 3–2 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1345 vs Moulis 1354
Moulis
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 40% vs Moulis 80%
Moulis
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 30% vs Moulis 70%
Moulis
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.73 / Moulis 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060574
Jnr1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 91 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Moulis2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayMoulis2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJnr leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S2Jnr3Moulis2n = 5Jnr took 3 of 5
S3Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S4Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJnrMoulisJ − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.639.8+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 468 vs 201 / 43751.7%46%242 / 468 vs 201 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.73/Moulis 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr—11118113P. Moulis—971151
WAug 28 · 09:30J. Jnr—711611113P. Moulis—11711692
WAug 14 · 15:00J. Jnr—4111110113P. Moulis—11491262
LJul 24 · 20:59J. Jnr—1112771P. Moulis—41411113
LJul 24 · 20:00J. Jnr—391191P. Moulis—11118113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491WSep 1 · 11:00J. Jnr2.387111211113M. Vorel1.53118101372
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381
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