TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067193
Played Sep 3Finished
Julius Krejcik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511341110121513
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJulius Krejcik to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJulius Krejcik above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 95 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Julius Krejcik at 59.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Julius Krejcik 5–1 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krejcik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Krejcik
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejcik 1354 vs Jnr 1333
Krejcik
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejcik 40% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejcik 40% vs Jnr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejcik -2 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Krejcik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejcik 1.61 / Jnr 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Krejcik)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13067193
Krejcik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 22 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Jnr2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 89 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back33% 28 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKrejcik5wins
AwayJnr1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKrejcik leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejcik80%4 of 5
AwayJnrn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejcik5Jnr1n = 6Krejcik took 5 of 6
S2Krejcik3Jnr3n = 6split evenly
S3Krejcik3Jnr3n = 6split evenly
S4Krejcik4Jnr1n = 5Krejcik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKrejcikJnrK − JBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match40.735.5+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejcikJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 43 vs 242 / 46958.1%51.6%25 / 43 vs 242 / 469Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejcikKrejcik 1.61/Jnr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Krejcik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krejcik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 28 · 12:28J. Krejcik—11511113J. Jnr—711981
WAug 28 · 10:30J. Krejcik—119811163J. Jnr—911118142
WJul 17 · 10:30J. Krejcik—1114113J. Jnr—81290
LJul 15 · 13:08J. Krejcik—127951J. Jnr—101111113
WJul 15 · 10:30J. Krejcik—81111113J. Jnr—114961
WJun 24 · 10:15J. Krejcik—11118113J. Jnr—541131
J. Krejcik10
LSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113LSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940LAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113LAug 31 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.57713591J. Seeman2.25111111113WAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100WAug 28 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.6111511113J. Jnr2.20711981LAug 28 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.91412341P. Moulis1.8011101142WAug 28 · 10:30J. Jnr1.91911118142J. Krejcik1.80119811163
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LAug 28 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.6111511113J. Jnr2.20711981LAug 28 · 10:30J. Jnr1.91911118142J. Krejcik1.80119811163
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