TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031401
Played Aug 28Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111191188111416
Julius Krejcik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:01 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeJulius Krejcik to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Julius Krejcik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 108 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Julius Krejcik at 62.5%
108 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 1–3 Julius Krejcik Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:01What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krejcik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Krejcik
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1381 vs Krejcik 1380
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 40% vs Krejcik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Krejcik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Krejcik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krejcik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejcik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.91 / Krejcik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krejcik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031401
Jnr1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 90 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back34% 29 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Krejcik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 19 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJnr1wins
AwayKrejcik3wins
Krejcik leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKrejcik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr1Krejcik3n = 4Krejcik took 3 of 4
S2Jnr1Krejcik3n = 4Krejcik took 3 of 4
S3Jnr2Krejcik2n = 4split evenly
S4Jnr1Krejcik2n = 3Krejcik took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJnrKrejcikJ − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match31.237.8−6.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrKrejcikBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 466 vs 22 / 3651.5%61.1%240 / 466 vs 22 / 36Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejcikJnr 1.91/Krejcik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krejcik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krejcik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 17 · 10:30J. Jnr—81290J. Krejcik—1114113
WJul 15 · 13:08J. Jnr—101111113J. Krejcik—127951
LJul 15 · 10:30J. Jnr—114961J. Krejcik—81111113
LJun 24 · 10:15J. Jnr—541131J. Krejcik—11118113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491
J. Krejcik10
LSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113LSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940WSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113LAug 31 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.57713591J. Seeman2.25111111113WAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100WAug 28 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.6111511113J. Jnr2.20711981LAug 28 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.91412341P. Moulis1.8011101142
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