TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060591
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Cizek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611811––––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 51 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 55.8%
51 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 1–2 Jakub Dufek Jnr Pavel Cizek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1361 vs Jnr 1329
Cizek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 60% vs Jnr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 50% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -1 · Jnr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.10 / Jnr 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Jnr)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060591
Cizek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 13 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Jnr1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 91 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek1wins
AwayJnr2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderJnr leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Jnr1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S2Cizek0Jnr3n = 3Jnr took 3 of 3
S3Cizek2Jnr1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S4Cizek1Jnr2n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekJnrC − JBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match46.047.3−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 66 vs 241 / 46745.5%51.6%30 / 66 vs 241 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrCizek 2.10/Jnr 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 18 · 12:49P. Cizek—146491J. Jnr—121111113
LJun 18 · 09:15P. Cizek—9101115122J. Jnr—1112313143
WMar 11 · 12:30P. Cizek—116119113J. Jnr—61171192
P. Cizek10
LSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113WSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 26 · 09:09M. Snizek1.5731260P. Cizek2.251114113LAug 26 · 08:00P. Cizek2.1011411262M. Snizek1.67911511113WAug 26 · 06:30J. Krejcik1.676111181P. Cizek2.1011136113LAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml2.6311611113P. Cizek1.44711671WAug 13 · 08:34P. Cizek1.6712411113P. Moulis2.101011651WAug 13 · 07:30P. Moulis1.739780P. Cizek2.001111113LAug 13 · 07:00P. Cizek2.0049100J. Seeman1.731111123
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491WSep 1 · 11:00J. Jnr2.387111211113M. Vorel1.53118101372
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