TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13058871
Played Sep 1Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210118117––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7
79 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 5–4 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.61 / Jnr 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Melisek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13058871
Melisek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 45 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Jnr2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 90 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back33% 28 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwayJnr4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMelisek leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek80%4 of 5
AwayJnr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Jnr4n = 9Melisek took 5 of 9
S2Melisek5Jnr4n = 9Melisek took 5 of 9
S3Melisek5Jnr4n = 9Melisek took 5 of 9
S4Melisek3Jnr3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMelisekJnrM − JBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.735.6+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 465 vs 239 / 46448%51.5%223 / 465 vs 239 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 1.61/Jnr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 1 · 10:00M. Melisek—1111113J. Jnr—5890
LAug 21 · 15:00M. Melisek—1195101J. Jnr—51111123
LAug 18 · 12:29M. Melisek—8101181J. Jnr—11129113
WAug 18 · 09:30M. Melisek—991112113J. Jnr—111181042
WAug 16 · 14:00M. Melisek—11129113J. Jnr—9101181
WAug 14 · 14:00M. Melisek—11114113J. Jnr—891191
LJul 22 · 09:30M. Melisek—811111092J. Jnr—113712113
WJul 11 · 16:29M. Melisek—1111113J. Jnr—7750
LJul 11 · 15:30M. Melisek—64100J. Jnr—1111123
M. Melisek10
LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122LAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 13:30M. Melisek2.20612761J. Hanacek1.61111011113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113WAug 28 · 10:45M. Melisek2.3811712113J. Hanacek1.535111081
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491LSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113
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