TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044980
Played Aug 30Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
112711711611––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:05 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 63.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 12–25 Adam Dvoracek Marian Melisek has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dvoracek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-25 in 37
Dvoracek
Correct
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1407 vs Dvoracek 1445
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Dvoracek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -1 · Dvoracek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Dvoracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.50 / Dvoracek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dvoracek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13044980
Melisek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Dvoracek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 73 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it71% 55 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek3wins
AwayDvoracek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek60%3 of 5
AwayDvoracek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S2Melisek5Dvoracek5n = 10split evenly
S3Melisek4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S4Melisek1Dvoracek7n = 8Dvoracek took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekDvoracekM − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.8−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 463 vs 254 / 47548%53.5%222 / 463 vs 254 / 475Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekMelisek 2.50/Dvoracek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 10:30M. Melisek—9111181A. Dvoracek—11133113
WAug 7 · 10:30M. Melisek—1111113A. Dvoracek—8890
LAug 1 · 15:15M. Melisek—119861A. Dvoracek—61111113
WJul 30 · 12:59M. Melisek—11115113A. Dvoracek—721141
LJul 30 · 12:00M. Melisek—1051191A. Dvoracek—12115113
LJun 24 · 10:00M. Melisek—6680A. Dvoracek—1111113
LJun 22 · 12:43M. Melisek—1114111052A. Dvoracek—316712113
LJun 22 · 09:45M. Melisek—811281A. Dvoracek—11811113
WJun 20 · 12:29M. Melisek—111169113A. Dvoracek—67111152
LJun 20 · 10:15M. Melisek—1011941A. Dvoracek—12611113
M. Melisek10
WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122LAug 30 · 13:30M. Melisek2.20612761J. Hanacek1.61111011113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113WAug 28 · 10:45M. Melisek2.3811712113J. Hanacek1.535111081
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102LSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121WSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.80611411113J. Hanacek1.9111911752LAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 29 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.801091141A. Dvoracek1.9112119103LAug 29 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.8012861162J. Hanacek1.911011112113WAug 29 · 14:30O. Plyska1.5311913872A. Dvoracek2.38411111183
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