TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13086385
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Pina
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1186111181412––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Dvoracek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Pina above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 81 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Adam Dvoracek at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jan Pina 3–4 Adam Dvoracek Jan Pina has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvoracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pina 1401 vs Dvoracek 1493
Dvoracek
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pina 20% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pina 30% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pina -1 · Dvoracek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvoracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pina form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPina 1.91 / Dvoracek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvoracek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13086385
Pina1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 13 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back36% 8 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Dvoracek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 74 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it72% 54 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePina3wins
AwayDvoracek4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderDvoracek leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePina50%2 of 4
AwayDvoracek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pina4Dvoracek3n = 7Pina took 4 of 7
S2Pina2Dvoracek5n = 7Dvoracek took 5 of 7
S3Pina2Dvoracek5n = 7Dvoracek took 5 of 7
S4Pina3Dvoracek3n = 6split evenly
S5Pina2Dvoracek1n = 3Pina took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPinaDvoracekP − DBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.940.3−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPinaDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 117 vs 251 / 47147.9%53.3%56 / 117 vs 251 / 471Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvoracekPina 1.91/Dvoracek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvoracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina—1212411113A. Dvoracek—101411762
LAug 1 · 16:14J. Pina—119541A. Dvoracek—8111193
WAug 1 · 14:15J. Pina—871112123A. Dvoracek—1111810102
LOct 26 · 14:05J. Pina—1091111A. Dvoracek—1211933
WOct 26 · 11:00J. Pina—11114123A. Dvoracek—7411101
LAug 18 · 20:55J. Pina—111167102A. Dvoracek—731111123
LAug 18 · 20:00J. Pina—48100A. Dvoracek—1111123
J. Pina10
LSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131WSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113WAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981LAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762WAug 23 · 06:30J. Pina1.9112911113P. Hlina1.801011771
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.80611411113J. Hanacek1.9111911752WAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 29 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.801091141A. Dvoracek1.9112119103LAug 29 · 16:00A. Dvoracek1.8012861162J. Hanacek1.911011112113LAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762
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