TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022749
Played Aug 27Finished
Karel Jirousek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811119118––
Jan Pina
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKarel Jirousek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Jirousek above · Jan Pina below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Karel Jirousek at 55.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Karel Jirousek 6–5 Jan Pina Jan Pina has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jirousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirousek 1468 vs Pina 1419
Jirousek
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirousek 60% vs Pina 40%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirousek 50% vs Pina 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirousek +2 · Pina -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jirousek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirousek 1.67 / Pina 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jirousek)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13022749
Jirousek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 45 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Pina2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back38% 9 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirousek5wins
AwayPina5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirousek57.1%4 of 7
AwayPina66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirousek7Pina3n = 10Jirousek took 7 of 10
S2Jirousek7Pina3n = 10Jirousek took 7 of 10
S3Jirousek6Pina4n = 10Jirousek took 6 of 10
S4Jirousek3Pina5n = 8Pina took 5 of 8
S5Jirousek1Pina4n = 5Pina took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirousekPinaJ − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.5+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirousekPinaBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 445 vs 55 / 11451%48.3%227 / 445 vs 55 / 114Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirousekJirousek 1.67/Pina 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Jirousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jirousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek—11811113J. Pina—911981
LFeb 28 · 09:34K. Jirousek—11119782J. Pina—481111113
WFeb 28 · 07:00K. Jirousek—15129113J. Pina—13101151
WFeb 15 · 09:28K. Jirousek—911117113J. Pina—11441192
LFeb 15 · 07:30K. Jirousek—21171152J. Pina—118114113
WSep 27 · 19:00K. Jirousek—1111113J. Pina—5780
LSep 7 · 08:55K. Jirousek—911116112J. Pina—118611133
WSep 7 · 06:15K. Jirousek—1111113J. Pina—7870
LMay 6 · 18:00K. Jirousek—111012762J. Pina—7121011103
LApr 19 · 21:00K. Jirousek—119541J. Pina—61111113
K. Jirousek10
WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113LSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113LSep 4 · 15:00L. Tuma1.911111113K. Jirousek1.809950WSep 4 · 13:30F. Husek1.83511391K. Jirousek1.8311711113LAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100LAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113
J. Pina10
LSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131WSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122WSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121LSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113WAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762WAug 23 · 06:30J. Pina1.9112911113P. Hlina1.801011771
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