TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084622
Played Sep 6Finished
Karel Farsky
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1175119111113––
Karel Jirousek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Jirousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Farsky above · Karel Jirousek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 78 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Karel Jirousek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Karel Farsky 3–3 Karel Jirousek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jirousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Farsky 1397 vs Jirousek 1468
Jirousek
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Farsky 40% vs Jirousek 60%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Farsky 40% vs Jirousek 60%
Jirousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Farsky -2 · Jirousek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jirousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Farsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFarsky 1.83 / Jirousek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jirousek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084622
Farsky1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jirousek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFarsky3wins
AwayJirousek3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFarskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJirousek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Farsky2Jirousek4n = 6Jirousek took 4 of 6
S2Farsky4Jirousek2n = 6Farsky took 4 of 6
S3Farsky2Jirousek4n = 6Jirousek took 4 of 6
S4Farsky3Jirousek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricFarskyJirousekF − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.039.5−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFarskyJirousekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 349 vs 229 / 44548.1%51.5%168 / 349 vs 229 / 445Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirousekFarsky 1.83/Jirousek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jirousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jirousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky—1159111K. Jirousek—71111133
LAug 27 · 17:30K. Farsky—311971K. Jirousek—11911113
LAug 11 · 15:00K. Farsky—251161K. Jirousek—11116113
WMar 22 · 19:00K. Farsky—6111011113K. Jirousek—11712662
WNov 2 · 09:58K. Farsky—11119113K. Jirousek—961191
WNov 2 · 06:30K. Farsky—51411113K. Jirousek—1112591
K. Farsky10
WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113WAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162
K. Jirousek10
WSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131LSep 6 · 20:00A. Dvoracek2.20713119123K. Jirousek1.611111711102WSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113LSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113LSep 4 · 15:00L. Tuma1.911111113K. Jirousek1.809950WSep 4 · 13:30F. Husek1.83511391K. Jirousek1.8311711113LAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100LAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981
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