TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055273
Played Sep 1Finished
Petr Kotrbacek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311117611119311
Karel Farsky
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeKarel Farsky to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kotrbacek above · Karel Farsky below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 83 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Karel Farsky at 56.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kotrbacek 5–5 Karel Farsky Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:25What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Farsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotrbacek 1450 vs Farsky 1405
Kotrbacek
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotrbacek 40% vs Farsky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotrbacek 60% vs Farsky 30%
Kotrbacek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotrbacek +1 · Farsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Farsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Farsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotrbacek 2.25 / Farsky 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Farsky)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13055273
Kotrbacek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 28 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Farsky1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 53 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotrbacek5wins
AwayFarsky5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotrbacek100%5 of 5
AwayFarsky100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotrbacek5Farsky5n = 10split evenly
S2Kotrbacek4Farsky6n = 10Farsky took 6 of 10
S3Kotrbacek5Farsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Kotrbacek2Farsky5n = 7Farsky took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotrbacekFarskyK − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.038.2−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotrbacekFarskyBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 267 vs 166 / 34346.4%48.4%124 / 267 vs 166 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyKotrbacek 2.25/Farsky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Farsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 11 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek—134116113K. Farsky—111131182
LMay 2 · 07:00P. Kotrbacek—1011491K. Farsky—12911113
WApr 21 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek—11114113K. Farsky—531181
WApr 14 · 19:00P. Kotrbacek—175118153K. Farsky—1511711132
LNov 2 · 09:00P. Kotrbacek—41450K. Farsky—1116113
LFeb 28 · 16:30P. Kotrbacek—1081121K. Farsky—12119113
LFeb 21 · 17:22P. Kotrbacek—7580K. Farsky—1111103
LFeb 21 · 16:30P. Kotrbacek—1041271K. Farsky—121110113
WFeb 9 · 19:15P. Kotrbacek—1111113K. Farsky—8960
WJan 5 · 20:30P. Kotrbacek—11115113K. Farsky—751181
P. Kotrbacek10
WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102WSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 14:00T. Bertho1.61111617113P. Kotrbacek2.207141931WAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.801361410152A. Dvoracek1.9111111212173LAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372
K. Farsky10
WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113WAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162
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